中國酸雨控制的國第合作戰略硏究 : Study on international cooperation strategy of Chinese acid rain control

추장민 北京大學 2002 해외박사

As a typical regional environmental problem, acid rain, the most urgent problem to be solved in china, is not only the focus of Chinese domestic environmental policy, but also the main field and subject of china international environmental cooperation. With about 20 years development, international cooperation of Chinese acid rain control has gained some achievements, and become the most important channel of domestic policy implementation. At the time that china is carrying out a series of acid rain control policy, by the analysis and study of motive and current status of china acid control international cooperation, this thesis tries to find out the defect so that can improve the strategy of international cooperation. The main analysis method of this thesis is connecting domestic analysis approach with that of international, and the main focus is the connection of domestic social economics, acid rain control policy, the willing of domestic and abroad cooperation, trend of international cooperation with principle, method, contents and range of Chinese international cooperation. Through the deep study of main motive and Chinese government behavior logic, this thesis summarizes the achievement and limit of international cooperation, and shows the most attracting goal and important fields of international cooperation. Analysis method, scheme and main conclusion: The first part: Europe and northern America and international cooperation process and current status of eastern European countries in social economical transition. Then discusses the international or domestic motive that may affect the disciple and way of one country, cooperation contents and effects, so that can point out the normal develop process and character of acid rain pollution control international cooperation development and effect. And the main conclusion is that: (1) the scientific evidence of acid rain problem is the basic and main motivation that creates the need of international cooperation and improve it. And the degree of scientific evidence's effect is up to three question, the first is whether it is rational, and the second is the accurateness, and the third is the common understanding of scientific evidence and scientific method between different countries (2) the economical and environmental interest and policy of each country is the key factor that affect the standpoint of international cooperation. (3) international cooperation is a good way for each country to build up acid rain control ability and learn the experience from each other. (4) the relationship between domestic status and international cooperation is influenced and improved by each other. The current status of acid rain control international cooperation shows that the principle and content is the result of ecological environment inter-dependence and many factors such as demand and motive of each country. The second part: At the basic of grasping of social economical system, policy evolution, this thesis makes deep analysis on the relationship between domestic factors and the generation, deterioration of acid rain problem and choice and implement of policy, so that can identify and grasp the main domestic factors and Chinese government's behavior logic. (1) the improvement of scientific research and scientific evidence that relate with acid rain source harm and effect on social economics, cost-effect analysis of policy is the basic standpoint and motive that make Chinese government show more attention to acid rain effect and carry out relative policy. (2) the market system in china breaks the balance between of production and environment protect, and brings out the so-called "institution and policy failure". However the improvement of market system can give china more chance and space to create policy and implement it. Since the reform and opening policy, the economics and development preferring policy always acts as a key role that affects the acid rain policy making and implementation. In the beginning, because the over focus on economics, many manufactures and local governments only pursued short-range economic interest with acid control and relative policy unconcerned. But in the late 1990s, regarding Chinese special status, more attention were paid on acid rain control by economics restructuring and manufacture optimization. The condition of policy implementation and contribution of so2 reduction shows that the choices that made by all grades of government, manufacture and company mainly depend on economic interest. (3) the degree that acid rain control policy been carried out is greatly affected by the condition that relative policy and institution arrangement are applicable or not. The implementation in "two control zone" shows that policy implement in power station has relation with the defect of relative supporting policy. (4) In one word, the generation, evolution of china acid control policy depend on four important factors, they are choice in social economic institution transition and strategy choice of transition, Chinese government‘s prior goals and choice, interest relation and maturity of supporting policy. The third part: the thesis analyses and discusses the situation and abroad and domestic motive of china acid rain control international cooperation. This thesis elaborates the process and characters of Chinese acid control international cooperation. By combining domestic and international factors, from two aspects, bi-lateral and multi-lateral cooperation, this thesis analyses goals, focuses, affecting factors effects and its relationship of Chinese acid control international cooperation, protruding the behavior logic and limit of Chinese government. and the main conclusion is (1) like domestic policy, scientific evidence of acid rain is start-point and main power when china develop international cooperation. Knowing that now Chinese acid rain problem is deteriorating and the china is a net pollutant-transport country, china has changed the cooperation ways, contents, range, principle and standpoint. (2) development of international cooperation is closely related with domestic acid rain control policy, especially acid rain monitoring and science research cooperation develop with the improvement of international environment cooperation and domestic acid rain control policy, In the 1980s international cooperation mostly carried out in area where acid rain is very serious such as Chongqing area, and focus is the source of acid rain and mechanism. While in 1990s, with the development of domestic policy, there are some changes in the content and range. From acid rain research to flue gas desulfurization(FGD) tech, capital importation and successful experiences of foreign countries. (3) during the process of development the principle, content and range of international cooperation were greatly affected by economical trading and diplomatic strategy and policy. With the Changes of opening policy and economic trading policy, the Chinese acid control international cooperation is changing also. As a part of domestic acid rain control policy and international cooperation, the principle of international cooperation, ways, content and range can directly express the limits of domestic social economic system, relative policy and prior goal of policy. The fourth part: regarding the change of domestic demands and situation of affecting factors, to improve international cooperation, from the aspect of policy and institution initiation, this thesis gives analysis and discussion of Chinese acid control international cooperation strategy and choice in the future. (1) acid rain research should be helpful to reach common understanding. To enhance the level of common understanding with other countries, accompany with all demand and attention, Chinese government should develop international cooperation in the field of acid rain integrated assessment model. (2) international cooperation's "learning effect" is of great importance to acid rain control policy initiation. How to implement and optimize the relative policies is a project Chinese' government has to face, so the focus should be put on importation of soft international source, such as policies and systems, so that can accelerate the process of initiation and scientification. (3) combining acid rain problem and climate changing, creating an international cooperation strategy that has multi-effect in the energy field is up to agenda for china. According the common character that Chinese acid rain and climate change are both somehow caused by coal combustion and new trend of climate change cooperation mechanism, this thesis gives out CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) which should be paid more attention and made good us of, to improve acid rain control.

2008년 경제위기에 대한 한·중 대응 비교 연구

추장민 부산외국어대학교 일반대학원 2013 국내석사

2008年经济危机对中国和韩国产生了巨大的影响,本篇论文就从经济的层面对2008年经济危机的原因,影响,和对应策略进行论述和总结。用中国与韩国对比的方法进行说明。 一、美国的次贷危机 2008年世界经济危机的源头是美国的“次贷危机”。次贷危机,又称次级房贷危机,指发生在美国,因次级抵押贷款机构破产、投资基金被迫关闭、股市剧烈震荡引起的风暴。危机致使全球主要金融市场出现资金流动性严重不足。次级贷款是指那些放贷给信用品质较差和收入较低的借款人的贷款。由于信用和收入不足,这些人往往没有资格获得要求借款人有优良信用记录的优惠贷款。放贷机构之所以愿意为这些人发放贷款,是因为次贷利率通常远高于优惠贷款利率,回报较高。这种贷款通常不需要首付,只是利息会不断提高。次级市场的贷款利率通常比优惠级抵押贷款高2%~3%。放出这些贷款的机构,为了资金尽早回笼,于是就把这些贷款打包,发行债券,类似地,次贷的债券利率当然也肯定比优贷的债券利率要高。因为回报高,这些债券就得到了很多投资机构,包括投资银行,对冲基金的青睐。 二、经济危机的发生原因 中韩经济危机发生的共同原因主要有以下几点:1.美国发生次贷危机的传播效果。 2.世界消费市场的萎缩。 3.对外较高的依存度和原材料的价格变动过大 当然,中韩经济危机发生的原因中,也有很多差异点。韩国的经济受世界经济的影响很大,对韩投资的减少和世界资本的流通性萎缩,都使韩国企业受到巨大的冲击。而中国经济危机爆发的原因,与其说受到美国次贷危机的影响倒不如说是中国自身的消费不景气和储蓄过剩,中国的资本市场在世界经济危机发生时还是很受限制的。所以说中国受到的美国次贷危机的影响要比韩国小得多。 三、2008年经济危机对中韩经济的影响 我们分两个方面论述。首先看经济危机对中韩实体经济产生的影响。共同点:1.GDP增长率大幅度下降, 2. 贸易恶化, 3.通货膨胀, 4.对主要产业的影响。 5.对就业的影响, 6.对投资的影响。 差异点: 1.对PPI影响的差异点, 2.对消费影响的差异点, 3.出口的差异点, 4.潜在成长率的差异点。 下面是经济危机对中韩金融市场的影响。共同点:1.中韩汇率变动性过大,2.中韩金融市场的脆弱性, 3.中韩持有的外汇的巨大损失。差异点:1.中国保险业较小的损失,2. 中国海外投资的巨大损失。 四、中国和韩国应对经济危机的对策 对应政策的共同点: 1. 利率下调 2. 反对贸易保护主义 3. 政府的财政支援 4. 对房地产的管理。 中国的对策:(一)积极的财政政策 扩大内需是积极的财政政策的核心目标。目前已经采取的财政政策主要包括大规模增加政府支出和实施结构性减税、降低或取消一些项目的收费、加大财政补贴和转移支付力度等。1.扩大政府公共投资,增加政府支出。2008年11月5日召开的国务院常务会议公布了总额高达四万亿的经济刺激计划,同时确定了进一步扩大内需、促进经济增长的十项具体措施(即“国十条”)。四万亿资金将主要投向保障性安居工程、农村民生工程、铁路交通等基础设施、生态环保等方面的建设,以及地震灾后恢复重建等。目前,各项政策措施正在有条不紊地实施,各项财政支出正按计划逐步到位。如,中央财政第一批1000亿元和第二批1300亿元的投资从项目到资金已完全到位。2.实行结构性减税和推进税费改革。2008年第三季度以来,面对金融危机的不断加深,为减轻企业和居民负担,扩大企业投资,增强居民消费能力,国务院出台了一系列减税和税费改革措施。(二)适度宽松的货币政策 1.大频度降息和增加银行体系流动性。2008年9月以来,央行连续五次下调金融机构人民币贷款基准利率、连续四次下调存款基准利率,其中一年期存、贷款基准利率累计分别下调1.89和2.16个百分点。同时,连续四次下调存款准备金率,大型金融机构累计下调2个百分点,中小型金融机构累计下调4个百分点,共释放流动性约8000亿元,使商业银行可用资金大幅增加。特别是2008年11月央行取消贷款规模限制以来,当月新增贷款4700亿元,12月新增贷款7700亿元,今年1月则新增1.62万亿元。2.加大了对中小企业的信贷支持力度。针对金融危机后中小企业的融资难问题,央行出台了一系列措施。2008年8月初,对全国性商业银行在原有信贷规模基础上调增5%,对地方性商业银行调增10%,此举可增加约2000亿元的信贷投放,进一步拓宽了中小企业的融资渠道。另据报道,2008年11月6日,经国务院批准,中央财政新增安排10亿元,专项用于对中小企业信用担保的支持。 五、中国和韩国经济存在的问题 1. 中国的积极财政政策其实也存在很多的问题, 政府的投资很有可能造成国有企业成长的同时,民营企业反而衰退的“国进民退”的现象。还有就是会出现投资过多,生产过剩的现象,以至于资源的浪费问题严重。当然还有所得分配的不均衡问题。现在中国的基尼系数过高,贫富差距过大的问题已经很突出了。2. 韩国对外依存度很高,受外国投资的影响很大。而且,韩国近几年潜在成长率一直呈下降的趋势。而且,政府的财政支持影响了市场的公平竞争。虽然有这么多的问题,但是中韩两国应